In a close contest being watched nationally, Pleasanton Democrat Jerry McNerney is closing in rapidly against his opponent U.S. Rep. Richard Pombo in the political battle for the 11th Congressional District seat on Nov. 7.
In fact, McNerney, the wind energy expert whom the Democrats dismissed out of hand when he ran against Pombo two years ago, may even be ahead of the seven-term Tracy Republican congressman.
A new poll conducted by well-known Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, based on a survey of 413 likely voters, shows McNerney leading Pombo 48 percent to 46 percent. Since the findings are within the poll’s margin of error, they show that McNerney and Pombo are in a statistical dead heat.
Pombo spokesman Carl Fogliani told the Sacramento Bee, which highlighted the Greenberg survey that “they must be polling on Fantasy Island.” “We never release our polls, but that’s way off,” Fogliani said. “McNerney never gets out of the 30 (percent range) in our numbers.”
Still, while there has been euphoria on McNerney’s campaign trail, the mood is more subdued in the Pombo camp. Even the congressman admitted that he’s never had so much attention since winning his congressional seat in 1993.
Pombo brought in President Bush two weeks ago to buoy his reelection chances at a rally in Stockton, usually friendly turf for the San Joaquin County native whose family name is a household word. In an effort to focus voters on the fight against terror and away from the ethics questions that are increasingly plaguing the Pombo campaign, Bush told cheering Republicans that Democrats would raise taxes and cut and run in Iraq.
The Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner poll, however, taken after the Bush visit, indicated that Pombo’s numbers are slipping along with the presidents.
Bush’s approval rating in California dropped to 29 percent earlier this month, with a follow-up finding that one in four California Republicans think he is doing a poor job.
While political analysts questioned the wisdom of mixing an already-troubled president in the political fury affecting Pombo, the sudden focus on re-electing Pombo by national Republicans is bringing more money and energy to the congressman’s campaign. That move was also spurred by the Congressional Quarterly, which just downgraded the race between the GOP incumbent and his Democratic challenger from “Republican favored” to “Leans Republican.”
Democrats also said the Bush visit, with television and newspaper photos showing Pombo at his side, may have backfired.
McNerney’s campaign manager A.J, Carillo told one interviewer: Nothing nationalizes an election like a visit from the president.”
McNerney, himself, contends that the Bush visit plays to his advantage. While Pombo has been trying to keep the campaign local with discussion forums on easing the I-580 traffic congestion in Pleasanton, for example, the McNerney camp is generating more aggressive advertising and campaign rallies that involve the major national environmentalist groups, such as the Defenders of Wildlife and the Sierra Club.
Suddenly, as new reports show that Pombo had a closer working relationship with now-convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his associates, McNerney’s camp is saying it has found the smoking gun needed to close the voter gap with Pombo and win the election.
Republican political oddsmaker Allan Hoffenblum, co-editor of a guide to legislative and congressional elections, summed up his views in a report:
“Can a weak candidate (like McNerney) who doesn’t have the funding beat Pombo? My gut tells me no.”
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