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The Legislature returned to Sacramento this week and will start to review Gov. Gavin Newsom’s budget when he introduces it next week. It won’t be pretty.

It will contrast to last year when legislators and Newsom had an estimated $100 billion surplus to play with—largely due to federal Covid-related money pouring in coupled with a very good year for initial public offerings that resulted in plenty of capital gains coming from the tech industry.

Not so in 2023. Sacramento adopted a budget without significant data after the IRS postponed the deadline for filing income taxes from April 15 to Oct. 15 because of storm damage from the atmospheric rivers that hit California and then, inexplicably at the last minute, extended it another month. Nobody is going to pay the IRS early when they can continue earning interest on their money so it was November before the state was seeing real revenue numbers.

They were ugly against the budget projections, income tax was off 23%. So, here we sit, six months into the fiscal year operating on a budget with no basis in reality. We’ve seen San Francisco falling well short of its budget and Mayor London Breed taking action to cut spending. No such actions from the Newsom administration.

The non-partisan Legislative Analyst Office projects deficits of $23 billion in the current fiscal year and then $68 billion for 24-25.

That includes the latest example of the Democrat’s pandering to illegal immigrants. Previously, they had extended MediCal coverage to immigrants who were seniors and to people 25 and under. The new budget eliminates that gap and covers all illegal immigrants. The cost—what seemed like pocket change with a $100 billion surplus– $3.1 billion that is ongoing.

The question this time around is how much can be papered over by borrowing or other budget gimmicks or how many real cuts must be made. School districts, between state budget guarantees and fed money, have had cash gushers. Those will go away. You’ve seen fractious budget negotiations in Dublin and Pleasanton as teachers’ unions have pushed for every dollar they can. District officials, wary of the state budget situation, have been holding the line.

No easy solution to please both sides particularly with Pleasanton having lost 700 students over the last few years. Declining enrollment, from a financial standpoint, is awful. The state pays its per-student allocation based on the prior year. So districts are a year behind on attendance versus revenue, a situation that requires tough decisions, particularly with a March 15 deadline to notify teachers of potential layoffs.

Sadly, local districts will have no real knowledge about the budget because the governor will submit at May revise at which point negotiations with the Legislature will get serious because it has a June 15 deadline to submit the budget to the governor. He must sign it by July 1.

Nothing will be easy in Sacramento or local agencies for the next several months.

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Tim Hunt has written for publication in the LIvermore Valley for more than 55 years, spending 39 years with the Tri-Valley Herald. He grew up in Pleasanton and lives there with his wife of more than 50...

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9 Comments

  1. The United States with 4 percent of the world’s population, has 30.80 percent of the world’s household wealth. China with 18.60 percent of the world’s population has 18 percent of the world’s household wealth. India with 17.76 percent of the world’s population has 3.4 percent of the world’s household wealth.

    In 2019, 148 million U.S. taxpayers wrote $1.6 Trillion in checks to the U.S. Treasury. In 2023, there were an estimated 4,339,753 federal government civilian employees. In 2019, there were half that number, 2,191,011 civilian employees. The top fifty percent of taxpayers paid 97 percent of the $6.6 Trillion in taxes, the bottom fifty percent paid the remaining 3 percent.

    U.S. government net worth is provided as $123.8 Trillion. Total assets are provided as $239 Trillion, and debts as $145.8 Trillion. I ventured into California’s worth, assets, and debt. I quickly left; I do not recommend it to anyone.

    Around the Tri-Valley:

    Dublin, with a population of 72,500, has a median household income of $185,639, Thirty-six percent of households are rentals.

    Pleasanton, with a population of 80,000, has a median household income of $181,639, and Thirty-two percent of households are rentals.

    San Ramon, with a population of 84,600, has a median household income of $173,519, Twenty-nine percent of households are rentals.

    Livermore, with a population of 88,000, has a median household income of $130,111, and twenty-seven percent of households are rentals.

  2. Why should the State of California be providing free Medi-Cal to illegal immigrants when a sizable number of working California citizens cannot afford to pay for Covered California health insurance coverage?

  3. According to media reports, the California Health and Human Services Agency has allocated $835.6M to initiate Medi-Cal services for undocumented immigrants in 2024 but the cost of maintaining the program will rise to $2.6B in 2025 and $3.1B in 2025.

    Is this due to inflation or projected increases in program membership?

  4. Nothing will be easy in Sacramento?

    Of course, it will. The “progressives” that run the state government will dig in their heels, claim that it is absolutely “essential” that we continue to spend what whatever they want (and more), and then raise fees/taxes to “fix” any projected deficits and shortfalls.

  5. Concurring with Michael B. as our state legislators will simply create or increase taxes to cover these additional expenditures.

    Look at the CA gas taxes. We pay more for gasoline than any other state. Vice taxes (i.e. cigarettes/alcohol/marijuana etc.) also contribute to new and progressive ways of funding various state-initiated initiatives sans CA voter feedback or backing.

    Now there is conceptual discussion towards implementing a meat tax to curb global warming and climate change. Seriously?

    With all of the talk about preserving democracy in America, do we really have a voice in matters that actually matter?

  6. As a vegan who drives an EV and does not partake in alcohol, tobacco, or marijuana, why should I care if California increases sales taxes on these items while placing a surcharge tax on various meat products?

    I would rather see the general CA and county sales taxes eliminated as this initiative would provide a broader fiscal benefit for all Californians.

  7. There are 5 states that do not impose a sales tax but they collect revenue from other sources (e.g. personal and corporate income taxes).

    Alaska
    Alaska doesn’t assess statewide sales taxes nor an individual income state tax. However, many of its municipalities do impose a sales tax—up to 7% for 2023. Other local taxes are levied on items such as fish, hotels, liquor and tobacco.

    Alaska also imposes a personal property tax on the local level and a corporate tax up to 9.40%.

    Delaware
    While Delaware doesn’t impose a state or local sales tax, it does impose a moderate state individual income tax of up to 6.6% for 2023. There is also a jurisdiction that collects local income individual taxes within the state. The state is also free from personal property and inventory taxes.

    However, Delaware imposes an 8.7% tax rate on its corporate taxpayers.

    Montana
    Neither the state nor the local governments of Montana levy a sales tax. For 2023, it imposes a moderate individual income tax of up to 6.75%. The state also imposes a real estate tax and a personal property tax on any property owned by January 1 for the taxable year.

    Montana has a 6.75% corporate income tax rate.

    New Hampshire
    Neither the state nor the local governments impose sales taxes in New Hampshire. There is an individual income tax in the state, but it is one of the few states that charges a flat tax. The individual income tax rate is 5%; it only taxes dividends and interest income.

    New Hampshire has a 7.60% corporate income tax rate.

    Oregon
    In Oregon, there is no sales tax imposed at the state or local level, but an income tax is imposed on individuals. For 2023, the individual income tax rate is up to 9.90%. In addition, local income taxes are collected by some jurisdictions within Oregon.

    Oregon imposes a corporate tax rate of 6.60% to 7.60%.

    Our state lawmakers should consider levying higher corporate taxes on Silicon Valley corporations and Hollywood studios.

  8. Here is a simple way to start the corrections needed in Calif. Vote the liberals out of office and bring in common sense people that understand the importance of a sound financial plan. California is not the State that it once was and I hope it is not to late to make the corrections needed!

  9. According to the CA Legislative Analyst’s Office, it costs $106,131.00 to house each incarcerated inmate with 75% of those expenditures going towards security and inmate health care.

    With roughly 93,000 inmates currently behind bars in state prisons, the total cost to CA taxpayers comes to over $10B per year.

    Is there a constructive way to reduce these expenditures by implementing shorter sentencing guidelines or reducing security measures and medical care for inmates?

    State prison inmates are now eligible for transgender treatments and reconstructive surgery. Do they have a right to these options and privileges at taxpayer expense?

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