What’s at stake in today’s CA primary

Months of campaigning, reams of mailers, millions of dollars in spending and a handful of fiery candidate debates have all culminated to this: Today is the last day voters can turn in their ballots for California’s primary election.

On the table for Californians are two major decisions: The top two candidates for U.S. Senate, and whether to overhaul mental health policy through Proposition 1.

With Rep. Adam Schiff leading the polls, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are jockeying for second place. But who will go on to November may come down to three factors: campaign cash, voter turnout and former President Donald Trump, writes CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu.

Schiff consistently has had the biggest war chest throughout the election. Though Porter has more cash on hand than Garvey, Politico reported in February that she had to sell her fundraising list to raise more cash.

Another challenge for Porter is a projected “historically low” turnout, particularly among young voters, which may hurt her odds while boosting Garvey’s. 

And despite Trump staying quiet about the race, his name frequently comes up in Schiff’s campaign ads as he attempts to fire up Democrats and to promote Garvey among Republicans, and over Porter, by painting Garvey as a strong supporter of the former president.

Meanwhile, as the state’s mental health and homelessness crises continue to mount, Gov. Gavin Newsom has billed Prop. 1 as a measure that will get “people off the streets, out of tents and into treatment.” 

As CalMatters health reporter Kristen Hwang explains, the dual measure would reroute funding to housing for people with behavioral health needs, and would allow the state to borrow billions to pay for supportive housing units and treatment beds.

Proponents of the ballot measure have raised nearly $21 million, and have the support of law enforcement groups, major health care organizations and the mental health advocacy group NAMI California. Opponents include those who are concerned that Prop. 1 will cut funding for current programs, as well as the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and the League of Women Voters of California.

Recently, Prop. 1’s chances of passing — though still likely — have slimmed somewhat. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll out Friday showed support down to 50% among likely voters, with 34% opposed and 16% undecided. 

To keep up to date on both issues as ballots are counted today, read Stella’s story on the Senate race and Kristen’s piece on Prop. 1.

Turnout trending up? As of Monday, nearly 3.2 million ballots had been returned out of the 22 million sent to every registered voter in the state. That equates to a 14% voter turnout so far. The number that politicos are watching: 31%, the lowest turnout in a recent presidential primary, in 2012. The highest turnout is among voters older than 65, at 32%, compared to just 4% for 18- to 34-year-olds, according to Political Data.  

Remember: Your ballot will be counted as long as it’s turned in or postmarked by today. In-person polling sites are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. You can find locations here.   

Trump stays on ballot: Any plausible possibility of Trump getting kicked off California’s November ballot ended Monday at the U.S. Supreme Court.

The high court unanimously ruled in a Colorado case that states can’t remove presidential candidates from their ballots. State Sen. Dave Min, an Irvine Democrat who is running for Congress this year, introduced a bill to bar Trump because of his involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. But Secretary of State Shirley Weber included Trump in the certified list of candidates for the primary, and Gov. Newsom disagreed with Min and others, saying: “We defeat candidates at the polls.”

Amid a multi-billion-dollar state budget shortfall, falling enrollment and increased hiring costs, California schools will face another setback in the next few months — the end of federal pandemic relief aid in September.

As CalMatters K-12 education reporter Carolyn Jones explains, the federal government gave California schools $23.4 billion. Districts with lots of low-income students received more money so they stand to lose the most.

After the peak of the pandemic, many schools that initially used the grants for one-time expenses (such as Wi-Fi hotspots for remote learning), shifted to spending the funds on ongoing programs that helped students catch up academically (such as tutors and after-school programs). That includes San Bernardino City Unified, among California’s lowest-income districts.

Potential cuts to these programs are likely to disproportionately affect low-income, Black and Latino students, who have already been hit hardest by learning loss during the pandemic. These students are also less likely to have adequate technology at home or have a parent available to help them with their schoolwork.

Marguerite Roza, the director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University, also raised concerns that debates over schools’ budget cuts in the next year will shift focus away from learning loss. Last week, for example, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that San Francisco Unified School District “is on the edge of a fiscal cliff” and could close multiple schools by 2025.

Roza argues that school boards should prioritize services that directly help students, such as tutoring, even though the school closures and teacher layoffs are likely to elicit the most fervent reactions.

• Roza: “Some districts will be focusing on staff retention instead of kids’ needs.”

For more on how schools spent their federal pandemic relief money, read Carolyn’s story.

The primary election may be dominating headlines today, but state officials and advocates remain busy drumming up support for bills before the Legislature.

Crime lab funding: Attorney General Rob Bonta announced Monday his support for Assembly Bill 3042, which would extend funding for the CAL-DNA Data Bank program. The program helps to solve crimes using forensic DNA databases, and through 2004’s Proposition 69, is funded by criminal fines. Because funding is due to end this year, however, the bill seeks to permanently extend funding, and is authored by Democratic Assemblymember Stephanie Nguyen of Elk Grove.

Gun control: Two groups, California Moms Demand Action and Students Demand Action, gathered at the state Capitol Monday to promote three bills:

• AB 2621 to update requirements for law enforcement related to gun violence restraining orders;
• AB 2913 to require law enforcement to review open unsolved murder cases by request of the victim’s family members;
• AB 2917 to expand what courts can consider when issuing a gun violence restraining order, such as stalking, cruelty to animals, or “threats of violence to advance a political objective.”

Prisoner health care: And marriage and family therapists also rallied Monday to advocate for AB 2142, which would create a three-year pilot program to expand mental health care access for prisoners who are currently ineligible to receive mental health treatment from their facilities. The bill is authored by Democratic Assemblymember Matt Haney of San Francisco and co-sponsored by California Association of Marriage and Family Therapists.

Young offenders get repeated chances at parole, but only in some cases. A Los Angeles man sentenced to life in prison at age 25 wanted to be included. What did the state Supreme Court decide? Find out from CalMatters justice reporter Nigel Duara.