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Ridership data from dozens of Bay Area transit agencies show the uneven progress they made in 2025 as they continued recovering from COVID-19 shutdowns that gutted fare revenue and reshaped how the region commutes.
Figures recently posted to the National Transit Database, the data collection arm in the U.S. Department of Transportation, show the ridership recovery public transit agencies have made since the pandemic-induced slowdown.
When the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in the Bay Area in early 2020, local governments and businesses entered into lockdowns that halted regular operations and encouraged people to stay at home. Commuting habits changed as people were told to avoid public spaces and minimize their interactions with others.
Surveys by the Bay Area’s regional transportation planning and development agency, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, found public transit was the second-most popular mode of commuting in 2019, at 13.2%.
However, by 2024, following changing commuting habits and the rise of remote work, public transit fell to the fourth-most popular form of commuting, at just 7.7%, behind working from home and carpooling.
Last year, six of the largest public transit systems in the region — the Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District, BART, Caltrain, Muni, SamTrans, and the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority — had some of their highest average monthly ridership numbers since March 2020, but still lagged behind their 2019 pre-pandemic totals.
Among the six, SamTrans came closest to a full recovery, averaging about 902,000 monthly trips in 2025 — roughly 97% of its 2019 monthly average.
BART lagged furthest behind, averaging about 4.6 million monthly trips last year, roughly half of what the agency carried before the pandemic.
BART spokesperson Chris Filippi said the agency has seen an increase in rider satisfaction, but riders are taking fewer overall trips — a reflection of hybrid work schedules and changing commuting habits.
“That means our old funding model that primarily relied on fares to fund BART operations is outdated and must be replaced,” said Filippi. “We’ve implemented a strategic hiring freeze, renegotiated lower near-term retiree health care costs with our labor partners, reduced and eliminated some contracts and agreements, and locked in efficiencies such as running shorter trains and lowering electricity costs through long-term contracts.”
Muni’s recovery varied sharply by mode. The agency’s bus network — which is its largest form of transportation — averaged 76% of ridership recovery, while its light-rail system remained at about 69% of 2019 levels.
The VTA, the largest operator in the South Bay servicing San Jose and neighboring communities, saw a 76% ridership recovery that was averaged between its bus and light-rail systems.
Other large agencies have worked to optimize their networks by changing schedules and adjusting routes to attract more passengers without increasing costs. AC Transit was one such agency that credits optimization as to why their ridership averaged 3.4 million per month — 73.2% of 2019 levels.
“Our paramount promise to riders in 2025 was delivering the August launch of the all-new Realign bus network — one of the most ambitious service transformations in our 65-year history,” said AC Transit spokesperson Robert Lyles. “Nearly 85% of our system — 104 of 124 bus lines — underwent changes, including frequency adjustments at neighborhood stops and the introduction of brand-new service designed to improve connectivity and reliability.”
Caltrain posted the largest year-over-year ridership jump among the six major agencies, growing its monthly average by 43% from 2024 to 2025 from 751,000 riders a month to just over 1 million. Overall, the commuter rail line reached 73.3% of its 2019 monthly average — a recovery, according to the agency, driven in large part by the completion of its long-awaited electrification project.
“It’s no surprise that modern trains with improved frequency and convenient amenities like on-board Wi-Fi that came from electric service encouraged a great many people to get on board Caltrain this year,” said Caltrain spokesperson Dan Lieberman. “But electrification wasn’t the only reason to get on board Caltrain this year. We ran multiple themed trains to special events, helping people start the party on board rather than wait to get to the game or venue.”
Outside the six largest agencies, some smaller operators have not only recovered but surpassed their pre-pandemic baselines. The Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit district — known as SMART — expanded its commuter rail line to Windsor and Petaluma during the pandemic years and now averages nearly twice its 2019 monthly ridership, making it one of the few Bay Area agencies to exceed its pre-pandemic baseline.
The San Francisco Bay Ferry, operated by the Water Emergency Transportation Authority, also saw a strong recovery, with a 93.6% return to 2019 monthly average ridership figures. The agency handled 251,000 riders on average every month in 2025, but recently saw its best January performance ever in its years of operation.
Despite the ridership recovery being made by public transit systems, agencies are predicting fare revenue will not be enough to cover operating expenses in the future. The federal government provided emergency funds to agencies to prevent closures following the sharp decrease in ridership, but those grants are set to expire this summer.
In a report last year, the MTC found five of the largest public transit systems will have an average annual deficit of $914.8 million starting in fiscal year 2027.
Gov. Gavin Newsom approved state loans to agencies, but it is still not enough to cover the massive budgets of these agencies.
Agencies said that without a new source of revenue, they will make drastic cuts to their networks. Officials at BART said the agency would close 15 stations, reduce the number of lines operating at one time, and have 30-minute frequencies between trains. Muni said it would cut subsidized programs for low-income groups and close less utilized lines across the city.
This year, Bay Area voters will weigh in on a sales tax for public transit in the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara. Proponents, such as the measure’s author state Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, said the tax will help secure a stable source of funding for transit agencies to keep them afloat.
— Story by By Andres Jimenez Larios, Bay City News
