Town Square

poll shows support for prop 30 dropping

Original post made by voter, Another Pleasanton neighborhood, on Oct 12, 2012

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This is a California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine U survey dated Oct 11th and it appears that support for prop 30 has fallen under 50%. And the survey was only done until Oct 10th, so I wonder if the whole blame game on Molly Munger and prop 38 is just a distraction from the facts?

Sept 27th results were:

57.5 in favor of 30 and 35.3 against. Unsure 7.2

Strong yes: 23.1, Somewhat: 15.6, Leaning: 18.8
Strong no: 18.3, Somewhat:4.0, Leaning:13.0

Oct 11th results are:

49.5 in favor of 30 and 41.7 against. Unsure 8.8

Strong yes: 18.7, Somewhat: 14.8, Leaning: 16.0
Strong no: 23.4, Somewhat: 6.7, Leaning: 11.6

So the strong yes's have fallen significantly and strong no's have grown significantly in the last two weeks.

I wonder why this hasn't made the news because you'd think the fact that support is under 50% now is big news? I'm not hugely political, so is it the source? Are there different surveys out there?


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Posted by 3O is NO !
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Oct 12, 2012 at 4:48 pm

Of has always been NO on 3O ! ! People know school kids get shorted because unions take off the top. ..Same is true for 30.. Schools & kids might get something IF something is left AFTER Brown's unions...always AFTER UNIONS, when the shortage is from unions excesses in the first place! ! !

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Posted by Resident
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Oct 12, 2012 at 5:43 pm

Everyone I know, even parents with kids in school oppose prop 30 and 38. I am against the propositions as well because I know the money is really meant to fund the unions, those unfunded liabilities that are causing budget deficits in schools, cities going bankrupt, services being cut. Brown and the dems in Sacramento are not fooling people, and if you read the text of the prop, it says money is to be used for "state debt"

Here is an interesting article from the merc news about prop 30:

" Support for Proposition 30 continues to slide -- a bad sign this close to election day -- and now he has to contend with a flurry of news stories that have focused on California's hostile business climate. "

"Without jobs, private sector spending plummets. Without private sector spending, tax revenue plummets. This isn't rocket science, it's Economics 101. "

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Posted by Resident
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Oct 12, 2012 at 5:54 pm

And the LA times has an article with the same numbers as those you posted:

"Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax plan is polling below 50% for the first time, according to a new online survey released from the California Business Roundtable.

Two weeks ago, the same poll showed support for Proposition 30 at 57.5% That has dropped to 49.5% in the latest survey, with 41.7% of those polled saying they were opposed to the measure.

The online poll of 830 likely voters was conducted Sunday through Wednesday. Radio and television ads began running against the governor’s measure during that time, and are likely the reason for the drop in support, says Rob Lapsley, president of the Roundtable. "

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and the LA times also reported how the prop had more support in May and dropped in sept:

"Fifty-five percent of registered voters say that they back such an increase, a drop from May, when 59% of voters supported it. The new poll shows 36% of voters opposed, with the remainder undecided."

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I hope both prop 30 and 38 fail

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Posted by Tr-Valley Times/CC Times recommends No on 30&38
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Oct 12, 2012 at 8:15 pm

The Tri-Valley Times/CC Times recommends a NO vote on both Prop 30 & 38. The Contra Costa Times SHOCKED me that they're actually recommending a NO vote on both Prop 30 & 38. The argument they use to justify their recommendation is even more interesting (and shocking - to me anyway), but I agree with it 100%.

I encourage everyone to read the full story. Here is an excerpt:

"Voters have been told they must either pass a tax increase or face a fiscal Armageddon. The more strident opponents of both propositions call that political blackmail, but that is unfair. It is expediency, pure and simple. It is the quickest way to create short-term relief, which is a balm to all term-limited legislators.

We would argue that Proposition 30 is like taking an Alka-Seltzer for your aching head when you need brain surgery. Sure, the pain might lessen for a while, but the root cause remains.

Proposition 30 is not so much a solution as it is a cynical political calculation meant to determine just how much the voters will tolerate. And those voters have had to tolerate a lot recently.

While claiming poverty, the Legislature and Gov. Jerry Brown forged ahead with the ill-advised and costly high-speed rail boondoggle.

While threatening to close state parks because of a $22 million deficit, the state suddenly "found" more than $50 million, which leaves voters wondering if that is the tip of the budget iceberg.

In the midst of this fiscal crisis, Gov. Brown chose to unveil the wildly expensive Son-of-Frankstein canal/tunnel plan to move water from Northern California to Southern California.

Recent public-employee pension reform efforts are just slightly more than window dressing. Please understand, we love California. We love public schools. We recognize they need and deserve more help and we would support reasonable tax changes to do that. But neither Proposition 30 nor Proposition 38 is the answer."

How the CC Times begins the article and the bold statement used in closing can be read here:

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Posted by voter
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Oct 12, 2012 at 9:45 pm

Wow, that is a brave editorial for CA. Can you imagine the pressure? They've stuck their neck out and they are right. I didn't think a local paper would be so honest.