A national campaign trumpeting Democratic accomplishments on health care, education and Wall Street regulation has given way to a race-by-race defensive strategy. Democratic incumbents are moving to aggressively define their Republican opponents and individualize races in an effort to inoculate themselves from the national mood.
Jerry McNerney, in my estimation, is in trouble. As the attacks on David Harmer were being trotted out here weeks ago, mostly a regurgitation of what his Republican opponents tried and failed with in the primaries, I said that Jerry McNerney cannot run and win on his record in Congress.
The Dems have fashioned some new attacks, and no doubt someone has investigators searching for any dirt they can find, or making some up, about Harmer.
It's getting a little late to try and define your opponent if you are Jerry McNerney, so mudslinging is about the only option left. You can only run so many commercials stating that you support the troops. And Harmer doesn't?
It looks amateurish at this point. The voters want jobs, and nothing else. Jerry, Nancy, and the Dems have failed utterly on the economy.
Absentee ballots get mailed out in a month. I don't want to sound any note of overconfidence. The fight isn't over. It is going to heat up, in fact. A lot can happen.
If you have read this far, then you give a damn, to be blunt. If you give a damn, then you need to know that enthusiasm and turnout will turn the race in CA-11. This race is the only competitive Democrat incumbent seat in the area, if not in the entire state. Get to the David Harmer website, or call the office, and volunteer. Phone calls and talking to voters is needed to ensure a win and help turn the balance of power in DC.
Another interesting bit of this:
While Democrats have all but given up hope that the political or economic climate will improve substantially before the election, they are not conceding control of the House. Several party leaders and strategists privately acknowledge that about 20 seats are already probably lost, but they believe they can build a fire wall around seats in the Northeast and in other pockets across the country where Republicans have nominated untested candidates.
The battle is boiling down to a question of mathematics and difficult decisions for Democrats. By the best-case Democratic calculation, party strategists believe that Republicans must beat about 35 sitting Democrats if the parties split 16 highly competitive open seats and Democrats win four of five Republican seats they see as within their reach in Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois and Louisiana.
Do I hear a hint that some seats (like McNerney's) will be abandoned to try to retain an overall majority?