We are over reacting it’s a fact.

Cdc just cut the death rate in half, all behavior modification requirements were based on that same model (pre correction), so yes, based on the model and subsequent correction to it, we over reacted.

So, can’t seemingly post this site enough: Web Link Worldometer

Everyone is quoting *annual* statistics for a variety of events, from car crashes to flu, but we are talking about nearly 70,000 US deaths in a matter of months. No one knows what the numbers might have been had we not complied with the best advice we had available (knowing it changes with new or revised information).

I will not click on any links sent by Pleasanton's own Nancy Pelosi

No need. Just go to Worldometer without my link or google who they are first. Hahaha, Nancy Pelosi. Not a dem, goose. And then am I supposed to be crushed because you mangled the name? Is this third grade?

No doubt, the shelter in place order prevented additional infections with CONVID-19, which probably also saved some life's.

@Pleasanton Parent,

Seems more like opinion than "fact" to me.

"all behavior modification requirements were based on that same model (pre correction)". There are/were many models being considered at federal, stated, and local levels from which to set public policy.

Dr Birx just reiterated this morning that:

"Our projections have always been between 100,000 and 240,000 American lives lost," Birx said. "And that's with full mitigation and us learning from each other of how to social distance."

Web Link

Ahh goose, it is third grade then.

Kathleen,
World o meter hasn’t been updated to reflect cdc data, which has been adjusted to about half of what you currently see in world o meter.

Michael,
Sure it did, but at what cost? There is an exponential cost to life prevention and the model we applied for all other situations where we evaluate the cost to / save lives has been completely abandoned here. Again partly reasonable given the unknown and uncertainty of this virus, but when actual deaths from this are corrected to half of what was reported, we must also look at the actions in place relative to their benefit and adjust accordingly. It sounds bad, but there is going to be a baseline death rate we accept.

BobB,
So when science and statistics disagree with you they become opinions? Interesting. You think the behaviors were set on the low end or high end of that model? Clearly the high, and as the high has proven to be a false conclusion and the reality matches the low end, behavior should also be adjusted accordingly. You can’t have it both ways BobB.

@Pleasanton Parent,

You stated an opinion "We are over reacting", and claimed it was a fact. That's an opinion.

No "base line death rate is acceptable".

BobB and Michael. You’re both hypocrites.

Just because you don’t like the facts doesn’t make them untrue.

Behavior was based on a medical threat model.
That behavior modification was based on the upper end worst case of that model.
Data has shown we are on the lower end of that model.
That model had a +100% upper end

Math supports if your behavior was based on the upper and, and in actuality you’re on the lower end, and that lower end is 50% less than your upper , your behavior is overly conservative

PP, can you provide a link to your claims?

If there was a predicted range and SIP and other measures kept us at the low end of the predicted range, then we did the right things. I would agree the percentages will drop once and if we ever test more people, but 70,000 deaths in a short time is still a lot of deaths. We are not New Zealand yet and may never be.

Web Link

Thanks PP. Big opening note from that section of CDC: “Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 1, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.”

There is also from the CDC site: Web Link Numbers as of May 3 are 65,000+ (more in line with Worldometer). From how they collect data: “State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.”

Feels like the reporting is in flux, with CDC reporting from two different methods (death certificates and state input).

Dr. Birx: ‘We Underestimated Very Early On The Number Of Asymptomatic Cases’

“ In spite of the efforts of those who have a vested interest in justifying the lockdowns and the economic damage, the truth is snowballing, and it all suggests a very disturbing conclusion -- America could have achieved a similar health outcome without destroying millions of businesses, incomes, and lives, without weakening our nation’s fiscal solvency by trillions of dollars, and most importantly, without compromising our most fundamental American rights.” Web Link Just an inconvenient truth I guess.

By the way, the suicide rate is climbing.

@Jake Waters,

Did you read about that silly video from the two quack doctors from Bakersfield, that has since been removed? Of course it was roundly condemned and shown to be nonsense. You can find all kinds of crazy fringe nonsense out there. Please, whatever you do stay away from Alex Jones.

Keep up the good work Herb Ritter. You’re doing a great job!!

More of the crazy nonsense out there. It's an international conspiracy.

Web Link

I am appalled that the Weekly would post the original comments by Cindi. They are clearly sarcasm and her personal opinion. As far as I know, Mr Ritter is entitled to his opinion on any topic. In this case he is entirely correct about government over-reach and over-reacting to this plan-demic. Check a few credible epidemiologists like Dr. Judy Mikovits,and Dr. Rashid Buttar online to learn about the very real dangers of the response to COVID 19.
So don't bother to respond to this post until you have done your homework from a source other than Big Pharma's mouthpiece, the major media networks.
I don't know why, but I expected more from the Weekly in terms of journalism. But then this is what used to be "Letters to the Editor" Column, so anything goes including personal attacks.

@been there,

Vaccinate your children.

@BobB

The scary thing about your kind @BobB is that we must all believe your sources. Your fake news. What is interesting is people like you attack Ritter as not being a man of science or a Doctor, but here is a revelation for you @BobB, neither are you. Unless we fall down to your point of view, your sources, we are labeled Alex Jones. People like you scare me. You do the same with climate change. Anyone who looks outside the box, or questions the leadership is deemed an outsider. Dangerous philosophy. Look into Dr. Fauci’s past with AIDS research- he has some baggage there.

@been there,

Those people are well know anti-vaccination frauds. We don't need that garbage here.

@Jake Waters,

You have no idea what my scientific background is or what my views on climate change are. Respected scientists and experts are free to "look outside the box" - Like Dr Ioannidis at Stanford, and their opinions are valuable, but out of the mainstream. When people with no background in science or medicine "look outside the box" their opinion is of little value and often does more harm than good.

More about me -- Advanced degrees in electrical engineering and physics, currently working in support of medical research. I am not a doctor or epidemiologist, but respect their opinions on their areas of expertise to be better informed and more valuable than mine. How about you?

What is interesting @BobB is that you believe that Social Media should be our censors and they should decide what is fact and what isn’t. That works for you. Twitter, Facebook, Google should not decide what is truthful or not because they have already been found to have an agenda.


Galileo was under house arrest until he died, why, because he held the opinion that the Earth orbited the Sun. Social Media would have censored him too.

@BobB

Send us your resume @BobB and we will look it over. If we feel you are up to the standards to have an opinion, we will get back to you.

@Jake Waters,

I just gave you an overview of my background and explained why I am not qualified to talk about epidemiology. How about you?

How wonderful (not), but not surprising, that an anti-vaxxer showed up.

Jake, did you post an incorrect link? The quote you attribute above to Birx (was that what you were implying?) is nowhere in the transcript, nowhere in the video in your link. Dr. Birx did say this in your link though:

“This is a very complex virus and I want to be very clear: It’s highly transmissible, very infectious, and a lot of people have become infected,” Birx continued. “And what we’ve known now from the very beginning, if you have co-morbidities, if you have heart disease, if you have diabetes, if you have asthma, if you have cancer, if you’re immunosuppressed — all of those issues make you susceptible to a much more difficult course.”

So Jake, I did a little more digging and the quote you present is not at all from the link you posted. It is from American Thinker, last paragraph here: Web Link

I hope that was an unintentional error.

Jake, Last thing on your comment about suicide, it has, unfortunately, been trending up for quite some time. The most reliable site only has stats through 2017, National Institute of Mental Health: Web Link Subsequent articles, with information on individual years since 2017, indicate the trend appears to continue.

@jakewaters
Inconvenient truth? Or another right wing lie?
"The Daily Wire, headed by bestselling author and popular podcast host Ben Shapiro, is a leading provider of conservative news, cutting through the mainstream media’s rhetoric to provide readers the most important, relevant, and engaging stories of the day."

Pleasanton Resident Scott Adams (creator of Dilbert) on Twitter today:

"I’ll spend money at any business in my town that opens against state recommendations. Our government has lost moral authority. Experts lied to much."

I follow Scott and he was once on-board with the recommendations of the scientific establishment. Now, obviously, not so much.

And before you slam him as just a cartoonist, he has a degree in Economics; has created internet companies; and has written extensively.

He also goes to a local gym that I happen to be a member.

It would be NICE if they opened up!

Oh by the way, Scott is a self-proclaimed liberal, though I think he's slowly taking the red pill.

Dan

Dan, Newsom has new protocols coming to start Friday.

And I would be happy to rat out Scott Adams if he violates the rules. Police will be called. Adams has no idea what he is talking about.

Kathleen,

Of course he is. The jig is up and he knows it.

He knows that sweet Uncle Sam will not be giving him ANYTHING unless he smartens up.

You and BobB can continue to stay home while the rest of us get on with our lives.

Dan

For you BobB,

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” - Richard Feynman Nobel Prize winner, Physics.

Get it?

You do you, BobB.

Dan, it probably has more to do with more testing, lower death rates, and a drop in new cases. As a retiree I don’t have to be out much, but I’m happy to wear a mask when I am out and let you go back to work.

@DKHSK,

The same Feynman, who went on national television telling people to not brush or floss their teeth? It wasn't pretty. Couldn't get out of the way of his own ego. He really needed to shut up and listen to the experts.

Web Link

Since Cindi has provided no context, no reference and just her opinion, siding with Herb Ritter is an easy choice. Herb has a valuable perspective as a successful businessman, as a long time volunteer with the city Planning Commission, and as a leader with the Pleasanton Chamber of Commerce.

To Cindi, the only thing that apparently matters is that no one die from COVID-19. Nor has Cindy attempted to defend her position after generating numerous critical comments. This was a shameful and cowardly personal attack on a fine Pleasanton citizen.

In my opinion, when the history of this pandemic is written, much of what has been called a "lockdown" will be seen as a severe and ineffective over reaction that destroyed the lives of many people. There are significant examples of states and countries that have not imposed these restriction and results are about the same as in California.

While I can't speak for Mr. Ritter, this is probably what he was he was saying to someone, somewhere at sometime.

“ Anxiety From Reactions to Covid-19 Will Destroy At Least Seven Times More Years of Life Than Can Be Saved by Lockdowns”. Web Link

@Doug Miller,

You have no idea what you are talking about and it would be better if you shut up and listen to the experts. That's all the context you need.

From The Los Angels Times: Newsom's office refuses records request on 'murky' $1B mask deal with Chinese company.
Web Link

@Doug Miller

Remember Doug, @BobB is one of those liberals that tell us regarding the governments doctors: ‘Shut up and obey!”

@Jake Waters,

I am a "liberal". Funny, I missed where I said that. More assumptions and prejudice.

@Doug Miller, maybe the statistics for US casualties in Vietnam will alter how you feel about overreactions. In a period of nearly 11 years, there were 58,300 members of the U.S. armed forces who were killed or went missing in action. In a period of months (debatable when the virus got here) we have 70,000 deaths (again, according to Worldometer). I disagree with those who think SIP and masks are asking too much. I, too, am worried about our small, local businesses and, more broadly, the US economy. I will wear a mask when I am out and am fortunate that SIP is not asking too much of me personally. I hope you and your loved ones are well and safe. Same for Herb Ritter.

@Jake Waters,

Notice the anti-vaxxer who joined the thread above? Talking about "major media networks" and so on?

Listen to what the experts are saying. Being a "successful businessman" in no way qualifies you to say anything of value with regards to epidemiology.

@Kathleen Ruegsegger,

I hope those numbers help convince some people. Some people just need a hard scold.

@BobB

Amazing BobB how you pushed your Electrical Engineering Degree to the heights of a Doctor. Of course, you can be anything you want to be through anonymity. Waiting on your resume for full disclosure.

@Jake Waters,

I'm not claiming to be a doctor or an epidemiologist. I defer to the experts. Again, what about you? Why do you claim to know better?

Second, I agree that Gavin Newsom is making mistakes in his response to the crisis. Though he should be applauded when he does follow the advice of experts, he is currently opening California too fast. We are not one of the states who has yet met the criteria to begin opening as stated by the White House task force. We need to slow down and follow the experts.

Vaccinate your children!

Scott Gottlieb, Former Director of FDA and lead booster of social distancing:

"The concerning thing here is that we’re looking at the prospect that this may be a persistent spread...while mitigation didn’t fail, I think it’s fair to say that it didn’t work as well as we expected,” he said. “We expected that we would start seeing more significant declines in new cases and deaths around the nation at this point, and we’re just not seeing that.”

Web Link

Safe link to Face the Nation

There are more and more "experts" exhibiting the same confusion this idiot is displaying. They just can't figure out why rates are continuing to climb even though we've been in lockdown for over 6 weeks.

BobB and Kathleen hardest hit.

Dan

We absolutely need to open the state and start working on what the "new normal" is for gatherings / work / etc.

Too many crazy's out there treating people not wearing masks like terrorists, but completely accepting of paroling prison populations.

I see no relationship between the Wuhan virus and the Vietnam War, or any war.
War is a choice made by a nation, and therefore so are the number of casualties.
Comparing this pandemic to other diseases, and how we react to them, makes more sense.

And every comment from "BobB" leads to more doubt that he is a scientist. "Shut up" is one of his favorite responses to those he disagrees with. Not something you would likely hear from someone who claims to be well educated. And hiding his or her identity lacks courage. But I encourage this person to continue making these comments.

It is time to admit the obvious: "experts", and specifically the politicians who listen to them, have no idea what they are doing.

Although this has been an unprecedented event, the decisions have consistently been questionable and attempts at mitigation have not only failed from a medical standpoint, but has the added effect of almost ruining a dynamic economy.

Vaccinating your children and oneself help with certain diseases but will do NOTHING for any virus. They've never come close to curing the common cold and they will not produce a anything resembling a cure for COVID. It'll be here forever.

Thanks to China for unleashing this virus on the world.

Dan

@Doug Miller,

Maybe if you would bother to read: I AM NOT A SCIENTIST! Neither are you! You need to do what the experts in epidemiology tell you to do. If you feel the need to advise people to go against the rules, then it would be better to just shut up.

Vaccinate your children.

@DKHSK,

You said "but will do NOTHING for any virus". That is a completely ignorant statement. Most effective and famous vaccines are against viruses: polio, small pox, measles, mumps, ...

When people, expressing their opinions, put people's lives at risk, it is best that they just be told to shut up.

@Dan—California cases and deaths are dropping; I’m sure that is why Newsom is considering more loosening. It would at least appear the measures worked in the Bay Area.

@BobB—harsh words generally get returned. It helps nothing, in my experience. While I don’t care if people are anonymous or use fake names to look like they are real, they allow people to misbehave. Unfortunate.

@PP—you put together two things that are not supportable. I don’t like if you don’t wear a mask, but it’s your choice. I absolutely do not agree letting people out of prison is acceptable.

@Doug—The point is that we are seeing many deaths in a short time period. Worthy of caution. I hope you are being safe. To me, not worth the potential risks.

Something lighter perhaps? I was sent a gif of Rod Serling (Twilight Zone): Imagine if you will a world where Cinco de Mayo falls on Taco Tuesday and is ruined by a virus named after a Mexican beer. My brother is suggesting the second wave should be called Dos Equis.

Do what you wish to keep you and your families safe, and hopefully those whom you pass by or work with as well.

I'm not a scientist, and Richard Feynman wasn't a dentist. He had no business giving his opinion on the efficacy of brushing and flossing teeth on national TV. He needed to be told to shut up and listen to The experts.

I'm happy to be polite and generally have been, except when people are putting other people's lives at risk with their ignorance.

My mistake. I thought physics was a science. But according to the dictionary, to be a scientist you have to be an expert in the field, not just educated in that field.

What "DKHSK" said above is the exact kind of ignorant and obviously false nonsense that I'm talking about. The kind of garbage that you might hear on Rush Limbaugh.

"Vaccinating your children and oneself help with certain diseases but will do NOTHING for any virus."

That is just completely wrong and completely ignorant. It is factually wrong. It is so far from reality that the opposite is true. Vaccination has been most successful against viruses -- small pox, polio, HPV, and many others.

Geez BobB, I guess you couldn't be bothered to Google the difference between the viruses that cause measles, for instance, and viruses like COVID, or FLU.

Measles virus don't change. That they stay the same makes vaccines easier to develop. It's not the same for COVID, or even the common cold, where the virus CAN change, making vaccines harder to develop.

PLEASE do yourself a favor and step away from the keyboard. It's obvious you're trolling now.

Dan

"I'm not a scientist,"

You're darned right about that!

"...and Richard Feynman wasn't a dentist."

Ok, good so far...

"He had no business giving his opinion on the efficacy of brushing and flossing teeth on national TV."

WRONG!!!

It's called the 1st amendment, baby!

And btw, I don't like YOUR opinion.

Shut up!

Kathleen,

"@Dan—California cases and deaths are dropping; I’m sure that is why Newsom is considering more loosening. It would at least appear the measures worked in the Bay Area."

You do realize that this virus has been with us much longer than previously thought, right?

Go back and re-read the studies from Stanford and USC. Up to 50x more people could have antibodies from this virus than was previously thought. That means that very likely, the cold I had back in January for 2-3 weeks could have been COVID. It WAS different than any other cold I've ever had. My wife recently had an upper respiratory cold just 3 weeks ago. The only thing she lacked was a fever.

My God you and BobB are fatalists.

Stay in your houses and leave life for those who want to live it, alone. I've had enough of your nanny-ism.

Sincerely,

Dan

@Dan,

Wear a mask and practice social distancing when you're out.

It's good that you admitted that you were wrong about viruses and vaccines.


Anybody can read what you said and see that it was obviously wrong.

CBS should have censored Feynman just as YouTube censored those two quack doctors from Bakersfield. Free speech has its limits, and CBS and YouTube are private entities and can censor as they please.

BobB,

You are full aware that viruses like Flu, the common cold, and COVID are not curable, and have no effective vaccines and probably never will.

That I had to explain it to you is not an admittance of my being wrong, I just didn't think I had to hold your hand and walk you through it like a child, Mr. "Engineer".

Yeah...sure.

Dan

British Government Scientist, Neil Ferguson, who popularized social distancing, fired from his position for having an affair with a married woman, ignoring his own rules for said distancing:

Web Link

You just cannot make this stuff up.

He would not show anyone his data for making those horrifically wrong models on both climate change and COVID.

Hypocrites. All of 'em.

Dan

Dan,

You wrote:

"Vaccinating your children and oneself help with certain diseases but will do NOTHING for any virus."

"will do NOTHING for any virus."

Was it a typo? Did you mean something like "any virus of a certain kind"?

What you wrote is plain as day. You said "any virus".