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Newsom now projects $18B shortfall in revenue for K-12 schools, community colleges

Experts expect no cuts for 2019-20, but funding for next year is endangered

Instead of $3 billion more in funding next year, officials from Gov. Gavin Newsom's administration are now projecting possibly $18 billion less over two years for K-12 and community colleges.

That amount -- a historic decline of more than 20% in the constitutionally guaranteed minimum level of funding -- would have a devastating impact on education, unless Newsom and the Legislature take other actions to reduce the cut or lessen the impact.

The California Department of Finance released its revenue and funding forecast on Thursday, a week before Newsom is expected to release his revised state budget.

Financial data reveal the shattering and immediate impact of the coronavirus on the state's economy. With more than 4 million Californians out of work and applying for unemployment insurance, forecasts project a drop in sales and income tax receipts by more than 25% next year.

With health and human services caseloads and COVID-19 expenses to cost $13 billion and state revenues to fall $41 billion, the state will face a $54 billion budget deficit for 2019-20 and 2020-21, according to the forecast. The general fund would plunge to under $100 billion, the level it was in 2011-12, the tail end of the Great Recession.

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Education officials are not expecting Newsom to force an $18 billion cut on school budgets. That would be the impact if Newsom funded only the minimum level required under Proposition 98, the formula that determines the portion of the general fund that goes to K-12 and community colleges.

In his March 13 executive order, Newsom promised to fully fund districts and charter schools for 2019-20, holding them harmless at the Prop 98 level that the Legislature passed last June, as long as they provide distance learning, meals for low-income students and child care for essential workers. He hasn't indicated he'd renege on that promise.

Next year's funding, when the full brunt of the recession will be felt, is what is endangered.

In addition, there are other ways to mitigate the impact of a funding cut: through deferrals, which are late payments from the state, relief from increases in districts' employee pension payments and funding schools beyond the minimum - an argument school officials will make, pointing to the effects of campus closures on district expenses and children's learning.

"The governor understands that districts and community colleges cannot absorb a cut of that magnitude, which will eviscerate schools," said Kevin Gordon, a Sacramento-based school consultant. "The notion of cutting schools deeper than any reduction in school history doesn't seem reasonable in an election year."

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"These cuts would undo the last six years of progress we have made on school funding. Our schools cannot endure another blow following this coronavirus crisis," California Teachers Association President E. Toby Boyd said in a statement. "We are painfully aware that the state and county are facing a recession, but for years California students, schools and educators have had to do more with less, and we can't let our students fall further behind."

California Community Colleges Chancellor Eloy Ortiz Oakley promised to work with Newsom, the Legislature and others in the college system to get through the crisis while warning that the state must not allow a repeat of what happened during the Great Recession.

"Severe budget cuts to higher education at the time forced community colleges to turn away 500,000 students, allowing California to fall further behind in the production of college-educated workers and hindering economic recovery," he said in a statement. "California needs to continue to invest in community colleges, which are educating nurses and first-responders battling this pandemic and which will educate workers for the state's economic rebound."

Story by John Fensterwald of EdSource. To view the article in its original presentation, visit the EdSource website.

— Bay City News Service

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Newsom now projects $18B shortfall in revenue for K-12 schools, community colleges

Experts expect no cuts for 2019-20, but funding for next year is endangered

Uploaded: Fri, May 8, 2020, 12:03 pm

Instead of $3 billion more in funding next year, officials from Gov. Gavin Newsom's administration are now projecting possibly $18 billion less over two years for K-12 and community colleges.

That amount -- a historic decline of more than 20% in the constitutionally guaranteed minimum level of funding -- would have a devastating impact on education, unless Newsom and the Legislature take other actions to reduce the cut or lessen the impact.

The California Department of Finance released its revenue and funding forecast on Thursday, a week before Newsom is expected to release his revised state budget.

Financial data reveal the shattering and immediate impact of the coronavirus on the state's economy. With more than 4 million Californians out of work and applying for unemployment insurance, forecasts project a drop in sales and income tax receipts by more than 25% next year.

With health and human services caseloads and COVID-19 expenses to cost $13 billion and state revenues to fall $41 billion, the state will face a $54 billion budget deficit for 2019-20 and 2020-21, according to the forecast. The general fund would plunge to under $100 billion, the level it was in 2011-12, the tail end of the Great Recession.

Education officials are not expecting Newsom to force an $18 billion cut on school budgets. That would be the impact if Newsom funded only the minimum level required under Proposition 98, the formula that determines the portion of the general fund that goes to K-12 and community colleges.

In his March 13 executive order, Newsom promised to fully fund districts and charter schools for 2019-20, holding them harmless at the Prop 98 level that the Legislature passed last June, as long as they provide distance learning, meals for low-income students and child care for essential workers. He hasn't indicated he'd renege on that promise.

Next year's funding, when the full brunt of the recession will be felt, is what is endangered.

In addition, there are other ways to mitigate the impact of a funding cut: through deferrals, which are late payments from the state, relief from increases in districts' employee pension payments and funding schools beyond the minimum - an argument school officials will make, pointing to the effects of campus closures on district expenses and children's learning.

"The governor understands that districts and community colleges cannot absorb a cut of that magnitude, which will eviscerate schools," said Kevin Gordon, a Sacramento-based school consultant. "The notion of cutting schools deeper than any reduction in school history doesn't seem reasonable in an election year."

"These cuts would undo the last six years of progress we have made on school funding. Our schools cannot endure another blow following this coronavirus crisis," California Teachers Association President E. Toby Boyd said in a statement. "We are painfully aware that the state and county are facing a recession, but for years California students, schools and educators have had to do more with less, and we can't let our students fall further behind."

California Community Colleges Chancellor Eloy Ortiz Oakley promised to work with Newsom, the Legislature and others in the college system to get through the crisis while warning that the state must not allow a repeat of what happened during the Great Recession.

"Severe budget cuts to higher education at the time forced community colleges to turn away 500,000 students, allowing California to fall further behind in the production of college-educated workers and hindering economic recovery," he said in a statement. "California needs to continue to invest in community colleges, which are educating nurses and first-responders battling this pandemic and which will educate workers for the state's economic rebound."

Story by John Fensterwald of EdSource. To view the article in its original presentation, visit the EdSource website.

— Bay City News Service

Comments

Jake Waters
Birdland
on May 8, 2020 at 9:19 pm
Jake Waters, Birdland
on May 8, 2020 at 9:19 pm

@Gavin Newsom

Here are some thoughts:
(1) stop funding illegal aliens
(2) get back that $1 billion dollars you spent on a bankrupt China automaker in China for masks- put Californians first
(3) open up the state and get people back to work- your decisions are made on faulty science and data
(4) have schools get back to the basis of education- reading, writing, and math- you will spend less money
(5) start using common sense and get rid of your inner committee of Liberal Art Majors

Do these five things and you will be on the way to ‘making our state great again.’


DKHSK
Bridle Creek
on May 9, 2020 at 7:03 am
DKHSK, Bridle Creek
on May 9, 2020 at 7:03 am

Jake,

You had me up until #5.

There's absolutely no way for anyone in Sacramento to apply common sense to anything, Democrat or Republican.

Dan


MichaelB
Pleasanton Meadows
on May 9, 2020 at 7:38 am
MichaelB, Pleasanton Meadows
on May 9, 2020 at 7:38 am

"That amount -- a historic decline of more than 20% in the constitutionally guaranteed minimum level of funding -- would have a devastating impact on education, unless Newsom and the Legislature take other actions to reduce the cut or lessen the impact."


Let me guess. The actions would include yet another "temporary" tax/fee increase?


Olorin
Val Vista
on May 9, 2020 at 7:50 am
Olorin, Val Vista
on May 9, 2020 at 7:50 am

Jake overlooked the elephant in the room...the unsustainable public employee pensions!

But something else is at work here. It seems that the Newsom Ninnies are already campaigning for the "Split Roll" property tax measure on the November ballot. I hope everyone gets educated about that because if that passes then you will see more than just Nordstrom closing stores.


Pete
Downtown
on May 9, 2020 at 8:53 am
Pete, Downtown
on May 9, 2020 at 8:53 am

This is a serious question. Lots of folks have been furloughed or been laid off in the private sector so that companies can stay in business by reducing costs. Have we done the same thing at the city, county, and state level?


Grumpy
Vineyard Avenue
on May 9, 2020 at 10:09 am
Grumpy, Vineyard Avenue
on May 9, 2020 at 10:09 am

Gavin Newsom doesn’t read this site. He’s busy dealing with a pandemic.

Political emotions always seem to get in the way of simple math.

The state is losing sales tax revenue, a lot of it. So the budgets fall short. Once we’re past all this, things will return to normal. In the meantime, we need to manage a couple of somewhat small deficits.

It’s not the end of the world.

Now, if we reopen too soon and many more people start dying—the usual measure is when everyone has been to one funeral of someone who died of the disease—then the economy will enter into a depression, and we’ll have a lot more to deal with than deficits. But then some of us will probably not witness that, on account of being dead.

It’s still a life and death matter.


Jake Waters
Birdland
on May 9, 2020 at 9:17 pm
Jake Waters, Birdland
on May 9, 2020 at 9:17 pm

No, we are not getting back to normal. Gavin Nausea isn’t going to fully reopen this state until we have a vaccine- he already said that. With that logic, the vaccine is here next year, but months beyond that with the inoculations. A lot of financial damage is going to take place. He keeps moving the goalposts, so we are very much in the dark.

His 4 phase plan is going to place a lot of burden on businesses. Training plans, disinfection plans, physical changes in the structures, plans on how to identify and address Covid19 issues and more. Then we have bigger government getting bigger (he loves that) through 20,000 inspectors. A nightmare for the little guy and more money. Businesses are ending as I write this comment.

And the phrase ALL Democrats love is ‘new taxes,’ and they are coming. You watch the number of Californians that will be exciting the state. Remember, we lost over 200,000 in Southern California that cost them a congressional seat. I am keeping my fingers crossed for more law suits and injunctions against him. He and the Michigan Governor must talk a lot, they are so close in mindset.

It’s all about politics, and he has his Aunt Pelosi at his side. Just wait for the mandate that we all must be tested, that is coming. He loves to state, “based on the science and data...”. We hear that all the time with climate change. This could have been so avoided if they didn’t panic, and addressed the elderly and nursing homes. Florida did it right.

Lastly, I was talking to a guy at the hardware store and he had to tell me: “Have you seen how fearful these Democrats are? They wear 3 face masks and double up on the gloves. If you say hi to them they greet you with ‘baaaa, baaaa,’ the sound of sheep.“. I couldn’t stop laughing, because it is so true. LOL!


BobB
Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on May 9, 2020 at 9:37 pm
BobB, Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on May 9, 2020 at 9:37 pm

I am a sheep. The Lord is my Shepard. I shall not want.


BobB
Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on May 9, 2020 at 11:03 pm
BobB, Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on May 9, 2020 at 11:03 pm

I was talking to my phone and it spelled shepherd that way. Hmm. Happy mother's day. Still no in person church tomorrow...


Pleasanton Parent
Pleasanton Meadows
on May 9, 2020 at 11:21 pm
Pleasanton Parent, Pleasanton Meadows
on May 9, 2020 at 11:21 pm

Time to get back to work, now, safely.


HarryK
Birdland
on May 13, 2020 at 4:09 pm
HarryK, Birdland
on May 13, 2020 at 4:09 pm

Everyone knows for sure that there will be a big tax revenue shortage, which translates into less money for state and local governments. Why are our local and state governments waiting to make spending cuts? I've not heard of one government employee furloughed or laid off as a result of Covid-19. Surely there are employees who are not working because of the shutdown - take the Pleasanton Library for example, it has been closed (will be until 5/31) - are all the employees getting paid? If so, why? Ditto that for multiple departments of city/county/state government.

You find me someone who is unemployed with a family to support who is advocating for a longer shutdown. All those pontificating about keeping everything closed are safe with private or public sector jobs, and don't have to worry about the impact. If you Lose your job and ability to support your family, let's see see if your attitude on prolonging the shutdown changes.


DKHSK
Bridle Creek
on May 13, 2020 at 4:21 pm
DKHSK, Bridle Creek
on May 13, 2020 at 4:21 pm

He cancelled schools and businesses! What did he expect?!

I'm so damed tired of California Democrat incompetence.

Dan


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