September 02, 2005

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Publication Date: Friday, September 02, 2005

Shake, rattle and roll!

Pleasanton sits across and adjacent to the Northern Calaveras Fault, say geologists. What that means is it could experience an earthquake that measures 6.8 on the Richter scale - an earthquake of about the same magnitude as the Loma Prieta, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Scott Baker remembers the Loma Prieta well. Baker, now Assistant Pleasanton Director of Public Works and Operations, was in San Jose planning to visit his wife - it was her first day on her new job - when the earthquake struck. He saw the car behind him ride the undulating street like a rollercoaster. "At 5:04 on Oct. 17, 1989, everybody's world changed real quick," he said. He watched signs swinging on area businesses and was "terrified."

Recently hired himself as Director of Building Services in Los Gatos, when Baker went to work there was no electricity. The downtown was full of vintage brick buildings - tilting precariously on their foundations. Given the amount of destruction he saw around him, what amazes Baker most is that no one in Los Gatos died. Broken arms, legs, bruises, cuts - 270 went to the hospital, he recalls, "but there were no fatalities. ... A lot of people would not go back into their homes. They were camped out on their front lawns. They were fearful of going back into the structures."

Pleasanton resident Deborah McKeehan was Los Gatos City Manager at the time. She warns, "In a major emergency, people will be on their own for 24-72 hours as Emergency Services deals with the most severe consequences of that emergency." Where the worst damage will be, she said, depends on how the ground moves and how energy bounces below the surface and back up. Although Foothill Road on Pleasanton's west end sits directly over the Calveras Fault, "Damage isn't usually worse at the fault," said McKeehan. She points to the San Francisco damage from the Loma Prieta. Some communities closer to the epicenter, she recalls, were left unscathed. McKeehan, until recently City Manager for Pleasanton, is now President, East Bay Division, of Embarcadero Publishing, parent company of the Pleasanton Weekly.

Recounting the numerous aftershocks felt in Los Gatos, Baker said, "It's unnerving. It was even to the point that, if a big truck drove by on the street and just sort of vibrated a little bit, you'd kinda do the jump thing."

The odds of an earthquake like that happening to Pleasanton in the next 30 years are 12.4 percent, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. In California, only the Rodgers Creek Fault - at just over 15 percent - has a higher probability of producing a destructive earthquake soon. Although some still believe it's more 'if' than 'when,' the USGS admits probability statistics may be conservative. The likelihood that pent up seismic energy will be released someday soon is, some experts say, actually higher - especially in the East Bay.

So. What can you do?

A lot, explains earthquake preparedness coordinator Tessa Burns, who warns that an earthquake could happen at any moment. "Thirty years sounds like a long time," she acknowledges, "but they can't really predict whether it will happen tomorrow, a couple years from now, or today" - especially when you look at the total picture.

Combining the risk of all known Bay Area faults - such as the Hayward Fault, believed by many to be "overdue" - and the odds skyrocket.

"There's a greater than 62 percent chance (of a "big one" striking the San Francisco Bay Area sometime in the next 30 years)," she said, with four of the top five worst ones predicted for the East Bay, according to a USGS working group.

"My fear," she said, "is that Pleasanton residents and businesses may feel a false sense of security," pointing out that disasters can and do happen. "The key," she adds, "is just to plan for all hazards, plan for just the worst scenario, and hopefully we won't need to use them."

Baker, recalling the Loma Prieta, said that for months afterward he thought he would experience another earthquake every couple years. Although the rebuilding went on for years, for him, the lasting impact had more to do with what he learned about people than the damage he saw to buildings.

With no cell phones or stoplights working, he saw drivers extending uncharacteristic courtesies to other drivers. Communities banded together to rebuild. So many people stepped forward wanting to help that, in Los Gatos, a big part of Baker's job was making sure the help got where it was needed.

He credits that spirit of cooperation to the fact that 25,000 to 30,000 people were traumatized simultaneously. Baker was struck by how, despite all the drills and training, the earthquake unfolded in unpredictable ways. "You kinda have to be flexible," he said, "you have to just sort of do what matches the need at the time, keep your priorities straight, and keep the big picture in mind. Beyond the shaking and destruction, there's all the human element involved in it."

The Loma Prieta reordered his priorities, Baker said, bringing "a recognition of what's most important in life, and staying focused on those." Things like just wanting to, "go home and hug your family."
What's shakin'?

A new "Shake Map" you can view on-line shows where most damage could occur in Pleasanton in the event of an earthquake. To see it, go to http://gis.abag.ca.gov/website/Shaking-Maps/viewer.htm.

Here's how to zoom in on your neighborhood. On the left side, click on the pulldown menu, "Map a Location" and select "by City." Type "Pleasanton" into the box and hit the search button. On the pop-up link, click on "zoom to these records" and close the window to view the map. To the right of the map is a list of Bay Area fault lines. Click on the one you want and wait for the Shake Map to load. Those likely to produce earthquakes that will affect Pleasanton are:

* Northern Calaveras

* Mt. Diablo thrust Fault

* North and South Hayward Fault

* Southern Hayward Fault

The map was produced by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey. Using the Shake Maps, ABAG has created a quiz that will let you judge how well your home or apartment will hold up during an earthquake. To take the quiz, go to http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/fixit/quiz/.

The Calaveras Fault is on the west side of Pleasanton, much of it running adjacent to and under Foothill Road. The San Ramon segment of the fault is bounded by Sunol and Danville. This section of the fault appears to have spawned a 6.9 earthquake on July 3, 1861, causing 6-8 miles of ground rupture between the Amador Valley and Danville, say geologists.

Unlike the San Andreas Fault, much of the Northern Calaveras Fault is not obvious from the surface. Researchers say that's because portions of it are buried beneath massive ancient landslides.

To view U.S. Geological Survey predictions regarding the Calaveras Fault, visit quake.usgs.gov/research/seismology/wg99/. For "real time" earthquake information from the USGS, go to quake.wr.usgs.gov. The site also includes links to tips for earthquake preparedness.

"Earthquakes don't kill people - buildings do"

They may be young, but in a real disaster, Scouts who've had Community Emergency Response Training know just what to do, thanks to a course offered by the Livermore-Pleasanton Fire Department. Experts say, "Earthquakes don't kill people, buildings do." The Scouts in Pleasanton-Livermore Troop 924 say they're prepared if suddenly faced with "The Big One."

Of everything the Scouts learned in their CERT exercises, Pleasanton Eagle Scout Brian Blank, 15, especially liked what he calls "the drill." He explains that, "You take everything you learned in the class and put it to use." At the Livermore Pleasanton Training Tower, Blank was part of a "Triage Patrol" that entered buildings looking for people hurt in an earthquake.

Triage, he explains, is determining which of three categories best describes the condition of the victim. Those categories are: deceased, critical or minor. Critical, Blank reports, could be someone with a gash on his chest and his legs trapped under a heavy object. Minor might be a slight burn, bumps and bruises - maybe even a fractured arm.

In the buildings, rooms were dark or dimly lit - even suffused with smoke. Because the search and rescue was designed to simulate the real thing, Blank reports his thoughts were, "'OK, this is not a drill, this is an emergency.' You can feel your adrenaline pumping." Pulling people from the building, watching as they got needed treatment, was so rewarding that Blank now thinks he might like to be a firefighter.

"You've learned to save somebody," he relates. "That feels good. You want to keep that feeling."

The boys took the course to earn a merit badge. Blank joined the Livermore-based troop when he was 11 or 12 because the troop is open to parent involvement. He said that his mother, Bree, and some of the other parents took the CERT course right alongside their sons.

Of the six-week course, Bree said she now feels "prepared and confident to help myself and my community" in an earthquake and that her new skills give her "peace of mind." Jane Jinks has so much confidence in her 15-year-old Scout, Ian, that if adult CERT-certified responders were in short supply, she wouldn't hesitate to send Ian out to help them.

The best thing Ian and his 12-year-old brother Tyler learned, Jane relates, is "to be level-headed. Calm. In a situation where calmness isn't natural." Bree agrees, saying "panic and fear" don't serve you well in an emergency.

She said the course was well worth the time invested. Eleven year old Michael Kuhn's mother, Sherri, agrees that CERT is "very worthwhile training."

Bree concludes, "While I hope that my son never has to personally face the aftermath of a major disaster, I know without a doubt that if he were faced with such a situation, his training would kick in and he would know what to do. I know he knows how to create safety for himself, how to organize and form a team, and then how to help others.

"Most importantly, I know he knows it too."
Interested in CERT?

Community Emergency Response Training is free and open to individuals, neighborhoods, groups and businesses. The next class for individuals is Oct. 11 - Nov. 15, from 6:30 p.m. until 9 or 9:30 p.m. at Amador Adult Education. To register or for more information, call the fire department's Disaster Preparedness Coordinator Tessa Burns at 454-2317, or e-mail her at tburns@lpfire.org.
TIPS FOR EARTHQUAKE SURVIVAL

* If the earth starts to move, duck, cover and hold. "I would get underneath a sturdy table or desk so if stuff falls on top of me, I won't get hurt from it. Or you can also hide underneath a bed." If whatever you're under starts to move, "Move with it." - Tyler Jinks, 12

* Stay away from "URM" - UnReinforced Masonry "It's gonna come down on you because there aren't any supports or steel bars in it. When it comes down, you're gonna get a big bump on your head." - Michael Kuhn, 11 Also stay away from windows "because the glass will break and fall on you, even if it's tempered glass, it'll still cut you." - Ian Jinks, 15

* Bolt big heavy furniture unless to the wall. Don't put heavy objects on high shelves. "If it falls down, you're gonna get your head crushed." - Michael Kuhn, 11

* Know where and how to turn off gas, electricity and water at the source. Test the breaker switch occasionally to be sure it hasn't rusted. Know water cutoff valves could be outside in the yard.

* Be especially cautious with gas hot water heaters. "It's important to strap the heater to the wall with steel straps. Don't try it with string. Because if it falls down, it will probably crack and flood your garage, basement, laundry room or whatever, but there's also the gas line connected that's basically like a blow torch." - Michael Kuhn, 11

* If someone's trapped under a heavy object, use "cribbing" (2x4s or other pieces of wood) to place under it as someone else leverages the object. Once the cribbing is high enough and holding up the object, you may be able to pull the person out. If a heavy piece of furniture falls on your sister: "Assuming she's alive, you can use leverage - that's usually a two person job - to get her out. Assuming she's dead, just ignore it. Well, not ignore it, but assume she's 'ns' - that's 'non-salvageable'" - and move on to the next person who needs help. - Michael Kuhn, 11

* Make sure you have an Earthquake Kit. "The most important thing to have in the kit is water. You need duct tape 'cause you can use it for a lot of stuff. If your water heater survives, you've got about 40 gallons of water in there which will be good if you run out of water in your kit and your house doesn't collapse." - Michael Kuhn, 11

* Always have a charged fire extinguisher on hand and know how to use it, but "Don't try to tackle a burning house with a fire extinguisher." - Michael Kuhn, 11 "Also, with the gas meter, if the dial is spinning, then there's a gas leak somewhere in your house." - Tyler Jinks, 12 "If you smell gas, get out of the house." - Michael Kuhn, 11

* Have a family escape plan. "You would want to get out of the house and hook up with your other family members." - Tyler Jinks, 12 "The best family meeting place is not Taco Bell, 'cause there's like a million Taco Bells. It's best to meet at a fire hydrant or something ... where the earthquake people would most likely go. Because then they would know there's no one in the house and they don't have to search. ... The worst place to go is up a tree, 'cause there's a good chance the tree is gonna fall over, and you could get severely injured." - Michael Kuhn, 11

* In case you might get separated from your family, have each member memorize a phone number of a friend or relative outside the area you all can call. When you leave the house, don't forget your earthquake kit with its sleeping bag, sturdy shoes and wet weather clothing.

* When you go outside, don't go back in an unstable house. Look for an open area away from URMs, trees and power lines.

* Save yourself. "Pets will find a way out when a door falls open. Worry about yourself." - Michael Kuhn, 11

* Most of all: "Don't panic." - Ian Jinks, 15
- Michael Kuhn, Tyler Jinks and Ian Jinks are Boy Scouts with Livermore Troop 924. The three recently completed the Community Emergency Response (CERT) course offered by the Livermore-Pleasanton Fire Department.
Earthquake Kit

* flashlight

* extra batteries

* portable battery-operated radio

* first aid kit and manual

* essential medications including prescriptions

* minimum 3 gallons of water per person

* canned food

* non-electric can opener

* protective clothing and rainwear

* sleeping bag

* sturdy shoes
EARTHQUAKE SAFETY QUIZ

1. Wherever you are, when you feel an earthquake you should always: _ Panic _ Duck, cover and hold _ Read a book 2. If you feel an earthquake starting and you're in your house, get over in the _____ of the room away from windows, large mirrors and shelves and then Duck, Cover and Hold until the shaking stops and you're sure it's safe to exit. _ Fish tank _ Open the door right away and run out. _ Corner 3. If you feel an earthquake starting and you're in your school, get under your ____ and then Duck, Cover and Hold until the shaking stops and follow the school emergency plan. _ Desk _ Teacher's Skin _ Book Shelf 4. If you feel an earthquake starting and you're outside, get ___ __ ___ ____ away from buildings, trees, power lines, and overpasses and then Duck, Cover and Hold until the shaking stops. _ Under a tree _ Out in the open _ An ice cream cone 5. In case of fire or other emergencies, what phone number should you call? _ 411 _ 911 _ 1-800-NOW-WHAT 6. If your house uses natural gas, remind your parents to learn where to turn it ___ after a quake hits. Also remind them that electricity and water should be turned ___ after the quake as well. _ Off _ Up _ In 7. Put together an Earthquake ___ which has supplies you'll need after the quake. _ Game _ Movie _ Kit 8. Be cautious after an earthquake. Stay out of damaged buildings in case of _________. Leave the area if you smell gas or fumes from the chemicals. _ Floods _ Aftershocks _ No cable TV

ANSWERS: 1.DUCK, COVER, HOLD; 2. CORNER; 3. DESK; 4. IN THE OPEN; 5. 911; 6. OFF; 7. KIT; 8. AFTERSHOCKS.

- Source: Fire Pals
Common Myths

Animals predict earthquakes.

Although there have been documented cases of unusual animal behavior prior to quakes, no cause and effect has ever been proven.

The ground will "open up" during an earthquake.

While changes underground having to do with soil types and the water table can cause landslides during an earthquake, faults do not open up. Movement occurs along the plane of a fault, not perpendicular to it. Shallow crevasses can form, though, during various types of ground failures.

California will fall off into the ocean.

The plates on either side of the San Andreas Fault move toward each other at about the same rate your fingernails grow (about 46 millimeters per year). California won't break off into the ocean, but one day, Los Angeles and San Francisco will be next to each other. - Source: US Geological Survey

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