March 18, 2005

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Publication Date: Friday, March 18, 2005

Editorial

Weighing in at next Monday night's joint meeting of the Pleasanton City Council and school board - the first in more than a year - is a new demographic report that shows the city's elementary school age population is shrinking. Registrations for the current 2004-05 school year total 5,985, the first time elementary school enrollment has fallen below 6,000 in recent years, and the first time since major development started in Pleasanton in the early 1970s that grade school enrollment hasn't grown. The report, prepared by Thomas R. Williams, Principal Demographer for Enrollment Projection Consultants of San Mateo, is significant for two reasons: ¥ It projects a continued decline in the number of students attending the kindergarten through fifth-grade (K-5) schools in Pleasanton, and then a gradual drop overall for total enrollment after 2009; ¥ This is the fifth year Williams has provided an in-depth, neighborhood-specific enrollment forecast for Pleasanton, and he has been very accurate in his projections. Last year, he forecast an enrollment for the current year at 14,217, just 10 more than the number that actually enrolled. His projections for a gradual decline in enrollment and the number of school-age children in Pleasanton should be taken seriously.

The report has major ramifications for both the school district and municipal leaders. It shows that the numbers are dropping now in the K-5 age group, but soon also for pre-teens in the middle schools. These are the youths that make up much of the soccer, baseball and other teams using Pleasanton sports fields. As those numbers dwindle, planners may need to reassess the millions of dollars now committed to new sports fields, or if Pleasanton has enough to handle the diminished needs ahead. Sports leaders will argue that there are plenty of players in other Tri-Valley cities who can keep the local teams filled. But are these costs Pleasanton taxpayers should shoulder, or should local dollars be used for tennis courts and other facilities to serve a rapidly aging population?

For the school district, of course, the new projections will force a broader look at facility needs and programs. That will include a reassessment of Neal Elementary School, the much-debated and long-planned K-5 school in the Vineyard Corridor where the district has already invested more than $6 million in acquiring a 13-acre site and paying its share of new roadways and utilities. Planned in the 1990s, construction has been delayed in a dispute with developers over funding, by a state budget deficit that curtailed new construction for several years, and now by a demographer's report that may indicate the need has gone away. The school board has determined that grade schools should have between 600 and 650 students, based on state aid per student of $5,476, to make them financially sufficient. With a total number now under 6,000 and falling, Casey may find it hard to justify a 10th elementary school in Pleasanton. At their last meeting with the school board, council members urged the district to build Neal and even offered to advance municipal tax dollars to help get construction under way. They should have a lively discussion Monday in reviewing a demographer's report that shows more schools - and more sports fields - may no longer be needed.

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