Future school enrollment looks uneven Future school enrollment looks uneven (March 11, 2005)

Secondary schools surge while elementary schools drop
by Rebecca Guyon

Enrollment in the city's elementary schools will decline as the high school population booms during the next 10 years, according to Tom Williams' demography report on the Pleasanton Unified School District. The Board of Trustees reviewed the annual demographer report during its meeting Tuesday.

Enrollment in the district will increase next October by 233 students to a total of 14,440 students and again in 2007 by 521 students, according to the report. Enrollment will peak in 2009 with an increase of 579 students above the current total, or to a total of 14,786.

Although the enrollment numbers are rising, the increase is not evenly distributed across the grades. Next fall, two-thirds of the projected increase will be in grades 9-12. Similarly, by 2009, 99 percent of the 579 student increase will be at the high school level.

"Your report is a challenge to our district," Trustee Steve Pulido said. "It scares me a little bit, but we're up to the challenge. This tells us with red flashing lights that we have to deal with (the high school population), but we also don't want to be rash with our decisions."

"This is the first time we have had below 6,000 in K-5," Superintendent John Casey said. "This is a major shift for us, but we are fortunate that we have all the timelines in our hands. We decide if we build schools or don't build schools."

Casey reiterated this cautious tone, saying the report is "dubious" because it is hard to believe the high school numbers will go up so drastically and the board should wait for high school enrollment numbers in the fall before considering action.

Discussion moved to the future possibility of closing an elementary school in the district and opening a fourth high school in addition to Foothill, Amador and Village high schools. Williams said closing an elementary school would result in a savings of approximately $300,000, while Casey cited a budgeted operation cost of approximately $600,000 for Pleasanton elementary schools.

However, Trustee Juanita Haugen pointed out that any decisions affecting the building or closing of schools is contingent on what the city decides in its General Plan. Trustee Kris Weaver also expressed concerns for the financial ramifications of the enrollment forecast saying it costs more to educate a high school student than an elementary student yet the district receives the same amount of money from the state for each.

"We need to take it slow and easy and maintain timelines for buildings we have planned," Casey said.

The predicted changes are in line with past enrollment trends in the school district as the secondary-school population has risen significantly in recent years. An enrollment "bubble" of students moved upward through the grades and in the process caused the increase in secondary-school enrollment. Williams said the tail of the bubble is currently in the fourth and fifth grades, and as those students progress to the middle school level they will contribute to large secondary-school enrollment numbers.

New housing units are expected to bring in more families and increase the student population, but their enrollment distribution is "steeply slanted" toward the secondary grades. This trend indicates that older families are occupying new residences and will further exacerbate the decline in elementary grades. Williams attributed this trend to high property values in Pleasanton.

"When we're talking about $600,000 for a home, it squeezes out most young families from living here," Williams said.

The board also discussed how the older student influx would affect enrollment distribution between Foothill and Amador Valley high schools. Currently, the two schools have relatively close student enrollment populations even though Foothill has 376 fewer "resident students," meaning those who live in its attendance area; this is attributed to intra-district transfers.

Williams predicts that in four years the Amador Valley attendance area could add 329 students, resulting in a resident student population of 2,841. The Foothill region is expected to receive only 177 more students during that time making its resident student population 2,313, a difference of more than 500 students. The distribution of these students is dependent on districting lines and the amount of district transfers. Trustee Weaver said maintaining even numbers in the two high schools is a top priority.

"As we look at these high school numbers I'm not OK with Amador getting way bigger than Foothill," Weaver said. "I do request that we look at this as a future item and have a discussion about the numbers, at what point do we let them go and how to keep them balanced."

"This combination will add mainly to the high school enrollments over the next five years," Williams wrote in the report's conclusion. "All of the forecast factors, however, clearly suggest a declining elementary enrollment. That decline is more significant than we have projected."

This is the fifth consecutive year Williams' firm, Enrollment Projection Consultants, has provided the school district with a demographic report. His projections last year for the 2004/2005 school year proved to be quite accurate; his forecast for the entire student population was only 10 more than the actual enrollment.

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