School enrollment future bumpy School enrollment future bumpy (January 30, 2004)

Demography trends predict flat or declined enrollment
by Teresa C. Brown

The forecast for Pleasanton school district's enrollment predicts a bumpy future, if one of demographer Tom Williams' scenarios comes to fruition. The board of trustees reviewed the annual enrollment projection and demographic report during its meeting Tuesday.

"There are two very different trends going on," Williams said, explaining that one involves new housing and the other involves older homes. The established neighborhoods have reached their "peak," he said. As young families move into a home, they stay and are still there when the children go to college. "There is no turnover that keeps turning over kids," he said.

On the other hand, Williams explained, new housing developments do bring children into the district. While older neighborhoods will see a decrease in enrollment, the new will see an increase.

Williams predicted two enrollment scenarios that may occur in 2004 for the trustees to consider. In the first scenario, which predicts a lower kindergarten enrollment, Williams said there would be an overall enrollment increase of 178 children, but it would be entirely at the high school level.

Middle school level will continue to see a decline caused by the advancing enrollment "bubble" of more than 1,000 students in three consecutive grade levels: eighth, ninth and 10th grades. As the bubble moves out of middle school, the smaller incoming classes from the elementary level will not meet the void left by the outgoing classes.

Under this scenario, Williams predicted an enrollment increase at the elementary level of 103 by the year 2009, whereas at the high school level, the increase would be 490, and middle school would see a slight decline of 21.

Moreover, should this scenario develop, by 2006, high school enrollment will increase by nearly 450 while elementary and middle schools will see almost no change, with the former gaining 33 and the latter losing 10.

The second scenario for 2006 reflects the same prediction for both middle and high school as the first scenario as well as a 176 increase at elementary schools. Williams cautioned that the second scenario was not as likely to happen.

Responding to Trustee Steve Pulido's question, Williams explained that the second scenario was possible if Pleasanton has stable housing, he said, adding that although it is a possibility, it was "at the outer edge." The actual enrollment could be someplace between his two predictions, and the first scenario was more likely, he said.

Williams' report also revealed some potential concerns with current school boundaries. For example as of October 2003, the actual resident population for Valley View Elementary School was 837 while actual attending enrollment was 654, the difference resulting from intra- and inter-district transfers.

In the next four years, Pleasanton will have significant population changes, Williams told the board. Using the resident population numbers, he cited a loss of more than 50 students at Donlon and 40 at Walnut Grove elementary schools, while Hearst Elementary will gain 75 next year and possibly 156 over the next three years.

"After 2013 is a critical date for us," said Superintendent John Casey. He explained that when the number of new homes "dries up," there may be a decline in enrollment. On the other hand, under the second scenario, enrollment might stay the same.

"I certainly think we need to plan carefully so we're not in the position others are in," said Trustee Juanita Haugen, citing school closures and state take-overs.

Casey said he recalled discussing elementary school enrollment in 2002 in discussions about Neal school, a proposed school construction project under litigation between the builder and the school district. With that enrollment in mind, it was advisable to move forward, he said, adding, "I still believe that."

He explained that while the state puts the district "in a box," the district defines the programs. "In my mind, the nine schools are not adequate to meet program enrollment," Casey said.

E-mail a friend a link to this story.