I received this email from Mark Meuser, the Republican candidate in the special election for Mark DeSaulnier's seat in the California State Senate District 7.
After much deliberation. Today I had to make a very difficult decision not to run for the special election for state senate.
I really appreciated all the supporters who had worked so hard over the last several months. Running for the special election was going to be like running a marathon at a sprinters pace. It was going to be very difficult and a wise man counts the cost before they build a wall lest they get half way through and discover that they do not have the resources to finish. A close examination of how this election was shaping up revealed that the odds of winning were growing to almost impossible.
Many thanks to all those who were encouraging me to run. I really enjoyed campaigning around the district talking to people and hearing the problems that bad government has created. However, more important was learning about the creative solutions on how we could fix California problems. Nonetheless, this race was just not shaping up to be the right opportunity for me.
Mark Meuser for Senate 2016
I guess my endorsement couldn't compete with the Tri-Valley Democratic Club's endorsement of Representative Buchanan on Monday night. This choice didn't come as an overwhelming surprise. I'm almost surprised Susan Bonilla is staying in the race.
Unless there are strong reasons for voters to prefer Bonilla or reject Buchanan, the odds are Buchanan will win the special election for this Senate District. DeSaulnier's Senate district encompasses all of Buchanan's Congressional District. A small piece of Bonilla's District is included but the balance is lopsided in Buchanan's favor.
Voter turnout in an odd year election is usually small and in an off season Special Election even smaller. Only die hard supporters of each candidate are likely to vote. I'm not going to bet on this election but Buchanan is in a much better position to win than Bonilla.
I don't blame Meuser for dropping out. He doesn't have enough time to run a reasonable campaign by the Primary date on March 17th. As you can see from the email he signed, "Mark Meuser for Senate 2016," he is still planning to run in the next regular election. That will give him some breathing room to build support from his constituents.
Next year, 2016, is a Presidential election year. There will probably be a Republican Primary for President and for Barbara Boxer's Senate seat. Republicans will be more energized and Meuser has almost two years to build up his campaign and name recognition. Although I'm disappointed he's not running in the Special Election, it is another common sense decision on his part in my view.