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Jobs recovery is stronger than pass recessions

Original post made by Chet, San Ramon, on Sep 2, 2010

Chris Isidore, senior writer, On Thursday September 2, 2010, 6:26 am EDT

This story contains 530 words.

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Comments (4)

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Posted by radical
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Sep 2, 2010 at 9:26 am

we all know chet can cut and paste, and now i can too!

on the economy as a whole, from the same ECRI that has so much good to say about jobs
Web Link

Excerpts from ECRI professional reports:

January 2010 "The U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) growth rate, which had soared to a 63-year high in September, is now in a cyclical downturn… This means that U.S. economic growth is likely to start easing by mid-year…In this context, it is also notable that cyclical downturns in stock prices (a short leading indicator) have almost always followed post-recession cyclical downturns in USLLI growth…In sum, the U.S. economy is moving off the sweet spot and entering a higher-risk environment."

February 2010 ECRI goes on public record about implications of upcoming slowdown (CNBC clip above).

March 2010 "With stronger U.S. economic data discrediting the doubters, double-dip talk has dried up. Not surprisingly, most economists are marking up their growth projections for 2010 and beyond. As usual, such prognosticators are focused largely on coincident economic indicators, which they then extrapolate. This is why there was so much fear of depression last spring, when we forecast a growth rate cycle upturn, based on our objective leading indexes.

Having correctly predicted an upturn in economic growth in the face of widespread skepticism a year ago, those leading indexes are now anticipating a near-term cyclical peak in U.S. economic growth. Specifically, growth in the U.S. Long Leading Index (USLLI) has declined for five straight months to a ten-month low… The directional unanimity among our sector-specific leading indexes is striking. Just as compelling are the successive downturns in USLLI growth, WLI growth and USSLI growth, which are providing sequential signals of an upcoming growth rate cycle downturn for the overall economy – precisely as expected… (Thus), even as people are starting to believe that the perfect storm has ended, clouds are gathering on the horizon."

April 2010 "There is no doubt that USLLI growth is in a post-recession cyclical downturn… (O)ur forecast of a growth rate cycle downturn by mid-year remains fully intact. With the markets growing increasingly confident about a sustained acceleration in U.S. economic growth in the coming months, this highlights a potential divergence between ECRI's outlook and growing market optimism."

May 2010 "The risk of a cyclical downturn in stock prices has risen significantly. Moreover, we are approaching the most dangerous period of the business cycle to employ a buy-on-dips strate


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Posted by radical
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Sep 2, 2010 at 9:41 am

and we all know that the U1 unemployment figure doesn't tell even half the story, the 99'ers, the U5 and U6 numbers that tell how many are unemployed and not even looking for work,

worse for many people with families are the UNDERemployed -- everyone knows someone who got laid off and is now working, but making 50-75% of their previous salary

as for this key phrase from chets OP
"concerns about the fact that job growth has slowed dramatically from the spring of this year when employers were adding about 200,000 workers a month to payrolls"



Web Link

The Census Bureau contributed 66,000 temporary jobs last month.
Yet, in a sign that many people will struggle to find a job even as the economy improves, the number of people who have been out of work for more than six months hit 6.7 million, nearly 46 percent of the unemployed. "

Web Link

the U.S. economy added an average of nearly 200,000 jobs a month in the January-May period, a positive sign for the labor market as it recovers from the worst recession since the 1930s.
However, the May figure was boosted by the hiring of 411,000 temporary workers for the census. Only 41,000 private-sector jobs were added.

there is ample evidence that census hiring skewed the national numbers in a significant way -- Numerous temp workers reported that they were laid off and rehired by the census over and over

oh yeah, btw, in July we started losing jobs again...


Like this comment
Posted by Mike
a resident of Del Prado
on Sep 3, 2010 at 12:38 am

What flavored Kool Aid are you drinking Chet, or shall I say.....Joe Biden?


Like this comment
Posted by radical
a resident of Another Pleasanton neighborhood
on Sep 3, 2010 at 7:57 am

chet - you are not helping your "fine congressman" Jerry McNUMMI, bad timing on posting the cheery jobs story

U.S. Economy Lost 54,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.6%
Web Link

'Recovery Summer' Ends With Economic Pothole

Whatever happened to recovery summer?

This was supposed to be the season the economy heated up, thanks to a wave of public works projects, funded by the government's stimulus program. But summer is coming to an end, and the recovery has not taken root. Forecasters are expecting another gloomy employment report on Friday.
Web Link

for once it is not 'unexpected!?!'


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