Editorial Editorial (March 05, 2004)

City, educators eye slower growth effects

As Pleasanton considers expanding its sports fields and adding at least one more elementary school, new population trend lines from planning consultants and demographers indicate a tapering off in the numbers of young people who would use these facilities. Demographer Tom Williams looks for only minimal growth in total public school enrollment, from 14,039 last Oct. 1 to about 14,600 in 2013, the end of his forecast period. Short-term enrollment over the next three years will be mainly in the high school grades with about the same to declining enrollments in kindergarten enrollments. The expected change over the next three years is a gain of only 33 elementary students compared to today.

Across First Street, planners and consultants in City Hall are looking at similar slowdowns in the rate of Pleasanton's population increase, especially among younger residents. Demographic trends show that the city continues to have households primarily headed by those in the 30-55 age brackets, with those 64 and older creeping up both in numbers and as a percentage of total population, from 5.3 percent of the population in 1990 to 7.7 percent in the 2000 Census. Surveys show that homeowners plan to stay in Pleasanton long after their children move on to college and careers, empty nesting in their larger-than-needed homes for many more years if not their lifetimes. Besides the ambiance of the community, these older homeowners appreciate the convenience of close-by shopping and Stoneridge Shopping Center without having to drive on freeways to reach them. Their friends are here. With a first-rate Senior Center and ample activities, parks, church and social opportunities, they're finding no reason to move or to sell their homes to families with children. As a result, Pleasanton continues to house relatively few young adults. Continued appreciation in the already-high prices of homes here and the absence of low-end, affordable housing will likely continue this trend.

That's not to say the city is losing population. Now nearing the 70,000 mark, new housing already approved or planned could push that population closer to 80,000 before the city is built out over the next 10 years or so. Only 871 housing units remain if the land-use designations for new residential housing are followed, with most of them likely to be large (and expensive) homes, not apartments. That would raise the total housing stock in Pleasanton to 27,300 units, some 1,700 units below the 29,000-unit housing cap set by voters in 1996. State housing authorities have asked Pleasanton to provide more low-income housing, and planners are now considering rezoning changes to allow more low-cost housing in Hacienda Business Park where some corporate owners have decided against expanding onto vacant lots they own. Even so, it is likely that these additional housing units would consist of one- and two-bedroom apartments, with fewer school-age children.

While school-age children grew as a percentage of the city's total population from 21.3 percent to 23.2 percent in the decade of 1990-2000, demographer Williams' report shows that sector of the population is stabilizing, if not shrinking, and that the largest growth is in the middle school eighth grades and high school populations. As these students graduate and head for college, and as more of the baby boomers reach their 50s and 60s, Pleasanton can expect to have fewer children in school and playing sports and more need for activities and facilities to serve an aging population. While the baby boom population is still a long way from achieving an "elderly" status, it constitutes an increasing percentage of Pleasanton's total population - a group that is less likely to have kids on the soccer fields or in school. Planners and educators will need to consider these trend lines as they plan out the school system and city when residential development stops in just a few years.

E-mail a friend a link to this story.